A 2014 report from the Singapore Stock Exchange stated that due to sustained oversupply, the price of thermal coal fell to a six-year low in 2014.
According to the New Exchange, although India's coal is expected to continue to increase, the decline in China's import volume has exacerbated the predicament of the coal market. Indonesia is working hard to limit coal production and the spread of illegal mining, while Australia's coal production remains high. Looking ahead, in the medium term, lower coal prices will drive the recovery of coal supply, although the timing of recovery and coal market futures prices have not yet been determined.
The Singapore Stock Exchange once again pointed out that the oversupply of coal in the market led to a six-year low in thermal coal prices in 2014. Looking ahead, the sustained low coal prices will force high cost production to exit the market. Some traders expect coal prices to recover by the end of this year or 2016.
In Australia, China, and India, coal supports more than two-thirds of the country's electricity production.
China is an importer of thermal coal. Its coal imports have been declining in recent months, and a 6% import tariff has been imposed, while the export tax has been reduced from 10% to 3%.
India's desire for electricity supply, urbanization, and industrialization, coupled with the challenges posed by domestic coal mining, will make it a major importer of thermal coal in the coming years. However, these challenges vaguely arise in terms of port throughput limitations and infrastructure bottlenecks.
The target production volume for thermal coal exporting country Indonesia in 2015 is 460 million tons, higher than last year's expected 450 million tons. Approximately 76% of the coal is used for export. Indonesia continues to work hard to control production and illegal mining. In 2014, the country addressed these issues by implementing new regulations.
Australian coal exports remain relatively strong. The recent currency depreciation will help alleviate the profit pressure on local producers.
Coal prices are expected to recover by the end of 2015 or 2016
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